Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election

In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.

Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but Brown eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Brown has since claimed that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.^[1][2]

In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader following the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.

2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse effect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MPs from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally at the 2009 European Parliament election,^[3] and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.

On 6 April 2010, Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May, Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making Clegg deputy prime minister.